When Conservatism Fails, What Next?

This article of mine appeared in Toffeeweb.com. In it, I question the merits of conservatism with regard to the recent "defensive crisis" that Everton has been facing.

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On Monday 3rd January, rumours were rife that Everton manager David Moyes had handed in his resignation. Such a development would, perhaps, not have been much of a surprise; with twenty games played Everton, a team with lofty aspirations of a European finish, sat 13th in the table, with a mere 22 points. Added to this fact, there had been speculation of problems in the dressing room–former stalwart, Joseph Yobo, was loaned to Fenerbache, while new players Diniyar Bilyaletdinov and Johnny Heitinga, who collectively cost around £15 million, have struggled to get into the Everton first team, fuelling rumours that they may be seeking moves elsewhere.

In the transfer market, Moyes has been financially restricted, meaning that he has been unable to strengthen his squad with established players and instead has been deploying players in unfamiliar positions. Unsurprisingly, amid these rumours and the accompanying flurry of bets, the bookmakers slashed the odds on Moyes leaving Everton. But Moyes did not resign.

There is a tendency in such times of uncertainty for managers to panic and to become ultra conservative. They will stick with what has worked in the past and with the players who have proven that they can deliver, regardless of their form. David Moyes is no different and fans will usually understand the rationale. However, there is a strong case to be made against Moyes’s conservative approach, with particular regard to his recent team selections. With only three senior centre halves in the first team squad and two of them carrying injuries, it seemed as though David Moyes was facing a problem with his defence.

Johnny Heitinga has had a recurring knee injury, while Phil Jagielka recently injured his thigh and with Joseph Yobo on loan at Fenerbache, Sylvain Distin was the only fit centre half – at least, according to David Moyes. It is quite obvious, from the manner in which Moyes has been talking about his “defensive crisis”, that the likes of Shane Duffy and Shkodran Mustafi, who are widely considered to be two of the most promising centre backs in Europe, do not even enter the picture when it comes to the first team. For example, when Johnny Heitinga and Phil Jagielka sustained injuries in late December, Moyes expressed the view that he had effectively no cover for centre half:

I'm not sure about Jags, we are hoping he might not be out too long. He is certainly a doubt for the Birmingham game, as is Johnny Heitinga, so we could have a problem at centre half.

(Evertonfc.com, 23.12.10)

The Boxing Day game against Birmingham was postponed, but in the following fixture against West Ham on the 28th, Shane Duffy was included in the match squad, leading fans to think that Moyes was ready to take a chance. But Duffy started on the bench and full back Tony Hibbert, who stands at 5’8”, started alongside Sylvain Distin at centre half. Hibbert had previously lined out at centre half alongside then 17 year old Shane Duffy in the Europa League in games against AEK Athens and BATE Borisov and later played at centre half against Tottenham Hotspur, performing reasonably well. Nevertheless, the game against West Ham finished 1-1, and Tony Hibbert scored an own goal.

In the next game on January 1st, against Stoke, Phil Jagielka, who had previously been ruled out with a long-term thigh injury, remarkably started the game. David Moyes cited Tony Hibbert’s small stature as the reason he decided to play an unfit Jagielka:

We needed him because otherwise we would have had to come here with Tony Hibbert at centre-half which against their size would have been really difficult.

(Liverpool Daily Post, 3.11.1)

If David Moyes preferred to have a player who could win headers against Stoke, he could have played the fully fit 6’4” Shane Duffy, who has shown both at international and club level that he is immensely strong in the air, over a half fit Jagielka or an out-of-position Tony Hibbert – but Duffy didn’t even make the bench. The Stoke game finished in a 2-0 defeat, with Phil Jagielka scoring an own goal and the question that has been on every Everton fan’s lips is “Why not play Shane Duffy?”.

There are a number of possible reasons why Moyes is reticent about playing Duffy. Having only just turned 19, he lacks crucial competitive experience and according to Alan Stubbs, he has only just found the form and fitness levels that he was at prior to the life-threatening injury he sustained in May. One can understand why a manager would be uneasy about throwing the kid in at the proverbial deep end.

However, despite his age Duffy has shown that he is more than capable of competing at a high level. He made his competitive debut at the age of 17 when he replaced Sylvain Distin against AEK Athens in a Europa League tie, helping Everton to a crucial victory. And a few weeks later, he gave a Man-of-the-Match performance against BATE Borisov, with former Scotland international Pat Nevin highlighting the young defender’s impressive ability to read the game. Added to that, the young Irishman has an abundance of under-age international honours and has already trained with the senior Ireland team. It is no wonder that many Everton fans would like to see Shane Duffy given the chance at centre back ahead of an injured Phil Jagielka or Tony Hibbert.

Then there is Shkodran Mustafi, a highly rated young defender who has forged a formidable partnership with Shane Duffy at the heart of the Everton reserve and youth defence, even helping Neil Dewsnip’s academy team to a remarkable thirteen clean sheets last season. Everton signed the Germany U-19 international from Hamburg, for a relatively substantial fee and it was reported that Hamburg were extremely disappointed to see the young defender leave.

Surely, even in times of crisis, either Duffy or Mustafi should be seen as better options than unfit or out-of-position players? Indeed, if the consequence of sticking with such an attitude yields two own goals and two poor results, when exactly is the right time for Moyes to take a chance?

A perfect example of how a departure (albeit enforced) from conservatism can prove successful came just days after the Stoke game, when Everton beat Tottenham 2-1. With Tim Cahill on international duty, Moyes abandoned his usual 4-5-1 formation and adopted a 4-4-2 formation, with Jermaine Beckford and Luis Saha up front. Saha scored a goal in the opening minutes and Séamus Coleman popped up with another goal to clinch victory. The success of Coleman (and indeed Beckford) is another enduring testament to the rewards of taking chances with talented, if unproven, players. With the transfer window now open again, and Moyes keen to give his prospects loan moves, perhaps the likes of Duffy, Baxter and Mustafi will get their chance to impress potential suitors in the upcoming game against Scunthorpe in the FA Cup.